So as not to dissuade bettors of any monetary size, I won’t be attaching dollar amounts to my bets. Instead, I will convert my actual balances over to unit values, and post those so they can be used with any sized bankroll.
My lessons about bankroll management have led me to 1 unit equalling 2% of my starting bankroll. So if your starting balance was $100, one unit would be $2. If it was $10,000, a unit would be $200. Simple, no?Starting balance: 50U Current balance: 66.11U Pending bets: 8.4U Total balance: 74.51U Profit/Loss: +24.51U (+49.02%) Record: 61-75-1 Single Outcomes: 46-53-1 (+12.955U) Parlays: 15-22 (+11.555U) UFC: 40-46 Bellator: 10-14 Strikeforce: 2-2 Regional: 7-8-1 Boxing: 1-0 Mixed: 1-0 Read More…
I haven’t had a chance to get my picks and bets posted here prior to the fights starting for a couple of events now. I’ve been busy over at MMA Oddsbreaker (if you don’t follow the site regularly, you should do that thing as there is a ton of great betting content over there). However, I’m on vacation for the next week from my full-time job, so I’ve got some extra time to get all my picks and plays on paper for this event.
The event itself really isn’t terribly intriguing, and the from my perspective the betting opportunities aren’t particularly ripe either. Still, I’m a degenerate, so I’ve managed to get some plays in on this card anyways. I took a bit of a different approach to this card, with a lot of very small bets on specific outcomes at high + numbers rather than my normal straight bets. Read on for my picks and bets. Read More…
“Diaz will bring the fight to GSP!”
“Don’t be scared Georges!”
“Finally! A new champion at welterweight!”
These are some of the responses that were characteristic of MMA fans at the time. St-Pierre was coming off of decisions against Jake Shields, Josh Koscheck, Dan Hardy and Thiago Alves. Nick Diaz had just come over to the UFC after what many considered the ‘Round of the Year’ against Paul Daley. In many fans’ eyes, Diaz’s stock had never been higher and St-Pierre’s had never been lower. People were jacked. I was not. Why?
As I’ve said many times before, and will continue to, I watch MMA for the fights. Not for the hype, not for the characters and not for the stories. Those things can all add to a fight, but they can’t make it. To me, St-Pierre and Diaz is not an interesting fight. That is not to say both are not good fighters, because Georges St-Pierre is probably one of the three greatest fighters in MMA history and Nick Diaz is a proven top 10 welterweight who is one of the most exciting fighters in MMA when faced with the right opponent. St-Pierre is not that opponent. Diaz has always struggled against strong grapplers due to a combination of his mediocre takedown defence and his inability to make adjustments in the middle of fights. St-Pierre is perhaps the most stifling top position grappler MMA has ever seen, and the most effective wrestler in the sport today. That does not bode well for Diaz, whose four losses in his first UFC stint were all by decision, and all due in large part to his opponents being able to obtain top position against him.
Anyways, enough about me stealing my own thunder. Here is the full version of the article I posted, with square parentheses added to make the context of 2011 make sense:
Today [June 2, 2011] it was announced that “Business as usual” really means “We’re going to do whatever the hell we want with Strikeforce, deal with it.” This announcement came right about the same time that the Georges St-Pierre-Nick Diaz bout was officially booked for UFC 137 this October [how did that work out, anyways?]. I’ve read and heard many people get extremely excited about this fight, but I’m not one of them. I’ve been asked why, and the answer is simple; Nick Diaz isn’t a threat to St-Pierre’s title. Keep reading to find out why.
The first thing I should make clear is that this is no way, shape, or form a bad fight. St-Pierre is either the best or second best fighter on the planet, depending on who you ask [remember, this is prior to Jon Jones completing his amazing 2011 campaign]. Diaz is a legitimate top 5 Welterweight [although I now have him ranked #6] who brings a new stylistic challenge to GSP [this was also prior to Condit, who I felt, even at the time, brought a similar but more dangerous style for St-Pierre]. The problem is that the style Nick brings isn’t one that is likely to trouble the UFC champion. Despite having a dangerous striking game and a dangerous guard, Diaz will be limited by what has always limited him, his wrestling game and inability to adapt. Part of Diaz’s wrestling issues stem from the fact that he’s not a good wrestler to begin with, but a bigger issue is that there are times when Nick resigns himself to the fate that he’s not a stellar wrestler and is too willing to fight off of his back. If Diaz gives Georges the opportunity to take him down with ease and then makes no effort to get up, he’ll spend 90% of this fight on his back. We just saw once again at UFC 130 that regardless of what a fighter does from his back, it’s miraculous if he wins a decision [this reference is to the Miguel Torres/Demetrious Johnson bout], and with a grappler as skilled as St-Pierre in top position, it will be difficult to get anything going.
This dynamic will likely lead to Diaz pandering to the referee and crowd for stand ups that he will be unlikely to get. It will also serve to further alienate St-Pierre from fans who are already beginning to tire of his style of dominance [with St-Pierre's injury absence, and the reception to the Condit bout this isn't such a big concern anymore]. With Brock Lesnar out of action for the foreseeable future [i.e. forever], the UFC does not need their biggest active star turned into a villain. Especially not by a fighter viewed by them as a loose cannon, and someone who has been difficult to deal with in the past [based on recent history and the UFC 137 incident, probably an accurate assessment].
Nick Diaz is an entertaining character in his own right, and many MMA fans love him (many hate him as well), but the fact remains that St-Pierre is a better champion to have for the UFC to continue to grow into the mainstream. Diaz’s crass attitude and willingness to step away from the sport at any given time mean that the UFC would constantly have to be walking on eggshells with him, something they historically have been unable to do. Furthermore, Diaz’s persona would not go over well with mainstream media outlets like St-Pierre’s does. While fans have made a running joke out of Georges’ pre-fight interviews [people has no idea how dark he is in his head sometimes], those are the types of superficial responses many media outlets clamour for.
While I know that many fans – whether they like Diaz or not – want to see the [former] Strikeforce champion win, I believe his wrestling and tactical limitations will cause him to lose a rather tepid decision. It is also likely a better scenario for the sport’s long-term growth for GSP to retain his title, regardless of the fashion or the resulting stagnancy in the Welterweight division [not such a big issue with Johny Hendricks on the horizon] simply due to what he brings to the table in terms of marketability. More people will tune in to watch a boring St-Pierre fight for $60 than are willing to watch Diaz for free [a reference to GSP's PPV buys compared to Diaz's Strikeforce ratings]. That is very telling, and while the UFC has made this fight out of an absence of challengers at 170 [back in 2011 this was the case... in 2013 they made it because the organization no longer cares about the sporting aspect of MMA and instead is focused on pure entertainment], you can bet that they would prefer to see their champion’s hand raised at the end of the night.
I feel like I can already see the entire buildup and this actual fight playing out in my head. Diaz will try to provoke in interviews and pre-fight showdowns, St-Pierre will not respond [although Dana White will make unsubstantiated claims about Georges "flipping out"], other than claiming he is the best he’s ever been, Diaz is his most dangerous challenger, and he guarantees that this time WILL be different, he will stop Diaz. Then we’ll see five rounds of the durable Diaz being unable to do anything to St-Pierre, and at the end of the night there will be renewed discussion about how boring Georges is, and how the sport is being ruined by wrestlers.
Honestly, can’t say I’m excited for it.
So there you have it. While people may be bitching about this fight because Diaz doesn’t deserve it (he doesn’t) or because it’s the fashionable thing to do, some of us have been singing the same tune for nearly two years now. This fight, as a fight, isn’t interesting. If Diaz comes out and puts a beating on St-Pierre, I’ll be happy to say I was wrong, but I seriously doubt that’s what is going to take place next Saturday night.
Alright, there’s going to be an emerging trend in this takeaways article, so I’m going to throw it out there right now. I have re-named “UFC on Fuel TV 8″ as “UFC: What the $#@! Were You Thinking?!” due to the all-around stupidity exhibited on the card from fighters, referees, judges and everyone else involved. I’m not exempt from this epidemic either, so you’ll have some self-effacing quips to look forward to as well.
Overall, UFC: What the $#@! Were You Thinking?! was a very strange card. at one point there was a run of eight consecutive decisions on the card, and I think if you bet the ‘Over’ on each fight on tonight’s card you would have gone either 10 of 11, or a perfect 11 of 11 (I don’t remember if Lim/Guimares O/U was set at 1.5 or 2.5). For any MMA event, nevermind one featuring some of the dynamic finishers this card had, that’s just odd.
Normally on these articles I start from the top and work my way down to the prelims, but this time I’ll be working in reverse, as the ‘What the $#@! Were You Thinking” quotient increased as the night went on. Read More…
This Saturday marks the UFC’s return to Japan, which is looking to be a more frequent occurrence after the organization saw some success with UFC 144 last February. Unlike the previous card featuring a Lightweight Title fight between Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson, this card caters a little more directly to the Japanese fans. The top three fights on the card feature former Pride FC standouts, and the remainder of the event showcases some of the best Asian fighters, and some of the better Asian prospects in the sport today. Although the card is taking place in Japan, there is quite the emphasis on Korean fighters as the UFC is still trying to break into that new market.
Let’s run down the card and see if we can’t find some value: Read More…
As you may or may not know, I have joined the MMA Oddsbreaker team, and will be doing some writing and editing for them moving forward. As a result, I won’t have the ability to update this site as often as I have been over the past few months. I will still keep my betting tracker going, and try to post my picks and bets for each UFC card, but the breakdowns I’ve been doing will take a back seat to this new endeavour.
Be sure to head over to MMAOddsbreaker.com, where you can find new odds being released for upcoming fights before anywhere else gets them. The site also features a podcast called the MMA Oddscast, where Nick Kalikas, Luca Fury and Adam Martin provide their analysis and bets for major cards.
Thanks for the support, and I hope you’ll continue to follow my work over at the new digs.
You can’t hold a good man down for long, as evidenced by both a picking (8-4) and betting (+2.9U) resurgence on UFC on Fuel 7. Those results have me in a good mood despite UFC 157 not being the most intriguing fight card in the world. Let me be clear, I watch MMA because I enjoy watching fights. Especially highly skilled fighters squaring off against one another in competitive bouts.
My contention with UFC 157 is that the fight which has become the sole focus of this card is not a competitive fight. I treat Women’s MMA just like Men’s MMA. When the fights are intriguing, I will be intrigued. When they’re not, I won’t be. If Ronda Rousey was fighting Cristiane Santos or Alexis Davis, I’d be hooked. However, she is fighting Liz Carmouche, and the allure of this being the first female fight in the UFC isn’t enough to draw me in when the fight is so unevenly matched.
Women’s MMA is nothing new to MMA fans, which probably explains the gap between MMA fans and the mainstream media in terms of interest in this card. Media sources which only follow the UFC see this as the first Women’s fight, and as such are treating it as something new and fascinating. MMA fans have already seen Rousey face better fighters in Miesha Tate and Sarah Kaufmann, and as such are treating this as a showcase. Your perception of this card is likely shaped by which group you fall into. Before we get to that main event, there are 11 other fights on the docket, so let’s take a look: Read More…